Medicaid eligibility and cost projections are essential data for state budgeting and policy decisions. While traditionally eligibility has been fairly predictable based on historical trends, a number of policy changes have taken place that have motivated the Department of Human Services (DHS) to revisit its eligibility model.

This project assists DHS staff in projecting Medicaid eligibility and revisiting the way eligibles are grouped. Specifically, researchers provide support relating to: developing a regression model for projecting eligibility based on the best available data, generating projections for new categories of eligibles, proposing new eligibility categories based on current costing profiles, and exploring other forecasting approaches.